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With stocks, your "best" winner may depend on what you favor in getting to the "finish line".Our preference in this contest is for the one offering the best odds of producing the most price gain in the foreseeable future.Of all the concerns weighing on the market, inflation and monetary policy are the ones we view as most important—a more aggressive Fed could quickly change the outlook for both the timing of the next recession and the longevity of the bull market in stocks. The global markets remained focused on the tightening financial conditions in the U. and trade uncertainty lingered as reports were mixed on the progress being made between China and the U. Italian political uneasiness also continued as the markets grappled with the implications of a populist coalition government after the Five Star Movement and the League parties reached an agreement.European equities finished lower, despite weakness in the euro and British pound as the U. Telecommunications issues came under scrutiny following some analyst downgrades in the sector, while earnings reports fostered a negative tone.Stocks trading in both mainland China and Hong Kong gained ground.
, the latest inflation data shows still-subdued upside pressure, but leading indicators for inflation—including tax cuts, the closure of the “output gap,” and a tighter labor market—have firmed.
Fed rate hike expectations nudged higher amid favorable economic reports and increased inflation expectations despite a recent soft patch of consumer and wholesale inflation data.
Retail sales rose, regional manufacturing activity unexpectedly accelerated, homebuilder sentiment improved for the first time this year, and Leading Indicators continued to move higher.
International economic reports due out next week that may foster some focus include: Japan—trade balance.
Eurozone—Markit's business activity reports and consumer confidence, as well as German Q1 GDP and business sentiment.